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DRAFT DAY: ORGANIZATIONAL NEEDS by Jason Martinez posted 6/05/08 Here's a breakdown of the current state of the Padres' farm system and what the team should look to fill in the amateur draft, which takes place today and tomorrow. Starting Pitching Depth: One legitimate front-line starter (Mat Latos, Fort Wayne), one other right-hander with top-of-the-rotation potential (Drew Miller, Lake Elsinore), and a ton of guys who could end up being solid #4-5 starters. Among the best of that group are Wade LeBlanc and Will Inman. Last year's #1 pick Nick Schmidt was projected to be a solid #3-4 starter before his injury. 2005 1st Rounder Cesar Carrillo was projected to be a future #2 starter in the majors before injuries put his career on hold. If those two come back strong in '09, the Padres could be in very good shape. Fort Wayne does have a few other guys with potential (Jeremy Hefner, Jeremy McBryde, Wynn Pelzer) but it's still too early to project where they will end up as major leaguers. Priority: The Padres have stocked up on polished, college pitchers over the last few years, which has helped to improve the pitching depth in the farm system. And they'll be plenty of more to choose from in this year's draft. However, they are now in a position where they can gamble a bit and go for a high-ceiling power pitcher that could possibly join Latos on the fast track to the major leagues. These guys are few and far between, so it likely would have to be done with their first pick. With other more pressing needs in the organization, I'm not sure it will happen. Bullpen Depth: Regardless of what kind of relievers they have in their farm system, the Padres have a GM who knows how to put together a bullpen. And he rarely does it through the draft. With that said, the career of future Hall-of-Famer Trevor Hoffman is winding down and although they have a very capable replacement in Heath Bell, they do not have any other power arms that could step into Bell's very important 8th inning role. Of course, Towers can take care of that through a trade or off the waiver wire but it would be nice to have at least one or two guys being groomed for important bullpen roles. Currently, they have a few guys in AA that could have nice careers as middle relievers (Greg Burke, Jonathan Ellis, Neil Jamison) and a very talented closer in Fort Wayne named Jackson Quezada. Besides that, there isn't much help on the way. Matt Bush is a wildcard but coming off of surgery with limited pitching experience, we can't expect much until 2010-11. Priority: The team has been linked to a few hard-throwing, college relievers in mock drafts. But unless they think they have found a legitimate set-up man that will be ready to contribute as early as 2009, I doubt they'll go that route. Catching Depth: Before the season started, the Padres looked solid in this area. Josh Bard and Michael Barrett at the big league level. Nick Hundley and Colt Morton on the verge of breaking into the big leagues. Jose Lobaton was coming off of a solid season at Lake Elsinore. Big things were expected from 2007 draft picks Mitch Canham and Luis Martinez. And then there were promising youngsters Ali Solis and Emmanuel Quiles. But just two months into the season, it appears that Bard and Barrett could be gone by 2009. Morton was called up to the big leagues but Manager Bud Black showed absolutely no confidence in him, which leaves his future with the organization in question. Lobaton, Martinez, and Solis have each struggled with the bat. Quiles is still just 17 years old and will probably play in the Rookie League again. Hundley should get a chance to compete for the starting job in '09 and Canham won't be far behind but all of a sudden, the catching depth could be a little thin in 2009. Priority: It's highly doubtful they'd use any of their first 2-3 picks on one but look for the team to pick a catcher with one of it's 10 picks. Infield Depth: The future appeared to be set in San Diego. An infield of Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Antonelli, Khalil Greene, and Kevin Kouzmanoff would be the core of the team for years to come. While Gonzalez is establishing himself as an MVP candidate, Kouzmanoff has not improved as much as the team has hoped and while Greene is still among the best defenders in the world, his offense has fallen off drastically. He'll be a free agent after 2009. Antonelli has been a compete disaster at the plate in his first season with AAA Portland. He's stopped hitting for average or power and stopped stealing bases. Not a good sign. There is absolutely no shortstop depth in the organization. 19 year-old Drew Cumberland has all the tools but he's made a ton of errors for Fort Wayne. The team has a promising young 2nd baseman in Eric Sogard playing at Lake Elsinore and some depth at 3rd base with Rayner Contreras (LE) and Justin Baum (FW) but not much else. Priority: The team is extermely thin at the middle infield positions but there doesn't appear to be much in the draft. And besides Greene, the Padres haven't had much luck in the draft with middle infielders. I'm sure they'll draft a few shortstops along the way and I wouldn't be surprised if they take a first baseman or two. There really isn't a lot of 1st base depth behind Kyle Blanks at AA. Outfield Depth: Chase Headley is apparently the left fielder of the future. But Chad Huffman, also a LF, is probably the best hitter in the farm system besides Headley. Cedric Hunter is starting to prove that he is the real deal in CF but he's at least 2-3 years away. Kellen Kulbacki should hit enough to get him to the majors in a few years as a LF or RF. Yefri Carvajal has a ton of potential but he's also 3-4 years away from the majors. Brad Chalk also has some ability as a CF. Will Venable will get a shot by next season to prove is he is capable of being a starter or if he's just a 4th outfielder. Priority: Most people who follow the team will tell you that the team's most pressing need is in center field. Everyone wants an athletic center fielder who can hit, steal bases, and run down balls at Petco Park. While this may be true, there likely isn't any player in the draft who is as capable and closer to the big leagues than Hunter. Look for the team to continue to draft the best available player on their board and not draft a speedy center fielder just because it would be nice to have a speedy center fielder in their farm system. SUMMARY: While the Padres are extremely thin in middle infield and CF prospects, they will pick the best player available with the #23 pick in the draft. This will likely be a starting pitcher or a corner-outfielder. Now that they've spent the last few years improving the depth of their farm system with polished, safer picks in the draft, I fully expect them to take chances on some riskier, high-ceiling players. I doubt they'll pick anyone with outrageous contract demands but look for them to add a few more power arms and athletic players with greater upside than they have in the past. |