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SPRING TRAINING POSITION BATTLES By Jason Martinez sdpadrefan.com UPDATED 02/26/08 FIFTH STARTER (1 spot available until Mark Prior is healthy) FAVORITE Shawn Estes: Anyone remember that Estes opened 2006 as the team’s #2 starter? Anyone remember that he pitched six solid innings before he left the game with elbow pain? The word is that the former 19-game winner is healthy and will be a serious contender for a rotation spot. COMPETITION Justin Germano: Don’t count out Germano. The Padres might only need a fifth starter until June and Germano was a combined 7-0 in April and May of ’07 between Portland and San Diego. Glendon Rusch: He would be a great story coming back from a serious blood clot but his career record of 60-94 with a 5.01 ERA are nothing to get excited about. He could likely give the team a few solid starts but is best suited for long-relief duty. Tim Stauffer: The former first round pick was unimpressive in his two starts with the team in ’07 but he was excellent down the stretch for Portland, finishing with an 8-5 record and a 4.34 ERA. Clay Hensley: Probably a long shot because he’s recovering from off-season surgery, Hensley is not farremoved from his breakout season in 2006 in which he posted an 11-12 record with a 3.71 ERA. If he can somehow reach full strength before the first week of April, he might be the best option available. SLEEPERS If all of the above fail to impress during spring training, the team could decide that they could do no worse by giving one of their young starters a chance for a few months. Cesar Ramos and Josh Geer are each strike-throwers coming off excellent seasons pitching in AA and lefty Wade LeBlanc is probably one of the top two pitchers in their farm system. While they could all use some more seasoning in AAA, they’ll have a chance to open some eyes in spring training. SDPADREFAN.COM’S PICK Stauffer – While he is the forgotten man in San Diego these days, I think he proved at the end of ’07 that he is on the verge of becoming a major league-caliber pitcher. Additionally, management would love to see their former 1st round pick (4th overall in 2003) succeed and remove the bust label. BULLPEN - 7th Inning Set-up (1-2 spot up for grabs) FAVORITE Joe Thatcher: Since signing out of an independent league in 2005, hitters have not been able to figure Thatcher out. In parts of three minor league seasons, he posted a 1.39 ERA with 168 strikeouts in 129.1 innings. Although he pitched just 21 innings with the Padres in '07, major league hitters couldn't figure him out either (1.29 ERA; .169 BAA). Until they do, Thatcher could be their go-to-guy in the 7th and not just a situational lefty. COMPETITION Kevin Cameron: Cameron was nearly impossible to hit at times during his rookie season but he also showed that he could be quite erratic (36 BB in 58 IP). If he can throw strikes consistently, the Mariano Rivera comparisons will have a lot more validity and he will likely nail down the 7th inning set-up man job. Cla Meredith: Whether it was because batters became more familiar with his unorthodox, sidearm throwing motion or maybe because he was just missing his spots and getting the ball over the heart of the plate, Meredith was not the same dominant pitcher we saw in 2006. If he can somehow regain that form, the job is his to lose. He was that dominant (1.07 ERA in 45 appearances). SLEEPERS Carlos Guevara, a rule V pick, will likely receive the same treatment as Kevin Cameron in ’07 and pitch mostly in mop-up duty during his rookie season. However, if Guevara can throw strikes, he could be the ’08 version of Cla Meredith in ‘06, a guy that major league hitters cannot figure out for a year because of a quirky delivery or in Guevara’s case, a unique, screwball-like changeup that hitters could have a tough time hitting. SDPADREFAN.COM’S PICK Cameron - I think Thatcher will get his share of chances when the game is on the line, especially against tough left-handed batters, but with Cameron's heavy sinking fastball in the low 90's, he will not be fun hitting against late in games. I think he'll establish himself as a go-to guy in the 7th. BULLPEN – Middle / Long-relief (4 spots up for grabs, not including the 7th inning set-up man) FAVORITES Kevin Cameron: He should make the team unless he completely loses home plate during the spring. Justin Hampson: Even after a brilliant rookie season, Hampson is going to have plenty of competition for one of the last bullpen spots. He proved he can pitch in long relief, keep his team in extra-inning games, and get left-handers out. Unless he gets completely lit up in spring training, I think he’ll earn a spot, likely as the long reliever. Cla Meredith: He should get one of the available spots based on his ability to induce groundballs with runners on base and the game on the line. Now, if those groundballs can just be hit at someone. Joe Thatcher: At the very least, he'll be a situational lefty but I think his role will be much more important. COMPETITION Adam Bass: Hard-throwing minor league free agent pitched primarily in relief in '07 for Tuscon, Arizona's AAA team. While he posted an impressive 2.16 ERA, his strikeout to IP ratio was surprisingly low (36 K in 50 IP) for someone who throws in the 90+ MPH range. Michael Gardner: As a rule V pickup fighting for a bullpen spot, odds are against this 26 year-old right-hander staying the organization. He has yet to pitch above AA although he does do a great job of keeping the ball in the yard. He gave up just 1 homerun in '07 and has given up just five homeruns in 265 career minor league innings. My guess is that he'd be a pretty effective pitcher in Petco. Justin Germano: Not a bad option as a long-reliever if he doesn’t make the starting rotation. He throws strikes and he would probably be good for four or five solid innings if a starter were to get knocked out of the game early. Enrique Gonzalez: Very good minor league numbers before a subpar 2007 season for Tuscon (8-10, 5.15 ERA). In his four previous seasons, he posted ERA's of 2.12, 3.23, 3.46, and 2.25 between A-ball and AAA. He likely will add some quality organizational depth while pitching for Portland. Carlos Guevara: Intriguing rule V pickup is an odds-on favorite to stick with the team as one of its seven relievers. Clay Hensley: With just one spot open in the starting rotation, Hensley might have to prove himself out of the bullpen before he’s given a chance to start again. In late 2005, Hensley was terrific, pitching mostly in relief, posting a 1.70 ERA in 24 games. Edwin Moreno: Coming off an impressive 16-game stint for AA San Antonio at the end of last season in which he saved nine games, Moreno is a non-roster invitee this spring with a chance to prove he has a futute as a major league reliever. The 27 year-old right-hander spent his first six professional seasons in Texas' farm system and was pitching in the Mexican League when the Padres signed him. Mauro Zarate: Never underestimate a Kevin Towers waiver-wire pickup. After being knocked around in his major league debut with the Marlins last season (5 IP, 11 H, 3 HR), he was claimed by the Padres this offseason because of his impressive 2007 minor league stats (2.10 ERA, 85.2 IP, 62 H, 75 K). SLEEPERS Former Padres minor league pitcher of the year Jared Wells will be trying to build on a great finish to his '07 season, where he was 2-1 with 9 saves and a 2.93 ERA after being moved to the Portland bullpen. Another guy to keep an eye on is Paul Abraham, a hard-throwing right-hander that has been in the organization for the past four seasons. At 28, he's not considered a prospect and has never pitched above AA, but he's had a successful minor league career and will be trying to open some eyes in camp. SDPADREFAN.COM’S PICK Thatcher, Meredith, Guevara, Hampson – No surprises. Unless one of these guys is terrible in spring training, this is a very crowded bullpen picture and it will be hard to break through. STARTING LEFT FIELDER (1 spot up for grabs, although a platoon is a possibility) FAVORITES Scott Hairston: Hairston is the favorite based on last year’s powerful performance after he came over in a trade with the Diamondbacks. If he can hit a few home runs and keep his batting average above .270 in spring training, he will likely begin the season as the starting left fielder. Chase Headley: The team does not want to rush their top prospect, especially not at a new position, so the only way Headley makes the team is as a starter. For him to be the starting left fielder, he’s going to have to clearly out-hit his competition in spring training or start the season in AAA where he will likely hit his way back to the big leagues before season’s end. COMPETITION Jody Gerut: Gerut was a rookie-of-the-year candidate back in 2003 after a .279-22-75 season with the Indians. After battling through injuries over the next several seasons, the 30 year-old has a legitimate chance to make the Padres out of spring training. Paul McAnulty: McAnulty will have to crush the ball in spring training if he’s going to win a share of the starting job. If he makes the team, he’ll likely pinch hit and start occasionally in LF. SLEEPER Gerut is coming off an amazing off-season in which he batted .390 in the Venezuelan Winter League. This was his first taste of success since his rookie season with the Indians. If he can carry it over into spring training, it will be tough to keep him off of the team as a fourth outfielder, at the least. If Hairston and Headley do not establish themselves, Gerut could well be the opening day left fielder against Roy Oswalt. Another scenario that will land him in the starting lineup on opening day: batting 1st or 2nd and starting in right field if Brian Giles is not fully recovered from knee surgery. SDPADREFAN.COM’S PICK Hairston – If Headley can hit like he did in AA last season, he would be a nice addition, but learning to play a new position while learning to hit major league pitching (in a very tough pitching division) would be tough. I think Hairston will get the first shot with Gerut or McAnulty playing against some of the tougher right-handers and Headley could get the call later in the season if the others aren't producing. BENCH – 2B/SS/3B (1 or 2 spots available) FAVORITE Callix Crabbe: Believe it or not, this rookie is probably the favorite to win a spot because of his ability to play every position except for 1B, C, and pitcher. He should be one of the fastest and most versatile Padres, similar to ex-Padre Bip Roberts. COMPETITION Edgar Gonzalez: A journeyman infielder who has a career .297 average in eight minor league seasons, Gonzalez could make the team if he can prove that he can handle shortstop and third base, as well as second base. His biggest season came in '06 when he hit a combined .327 with 13 HR and 71 RBI between three levels in the Florida Marlin farm system and followed that up with a .308-8-53 season playing for the Cardinals AAA club in '07. Oscar Robles: Robles proved to be a versatile player who could lay down a bunt and play multiple positions well. It might not be enough to hold off his competitors, who likely provide more offensive pop. Luis Rodriguez: Claimed off waivers this off-season from Minnesota, this switch-hitter also lacks the offensive ability (.273 career minor league average) of some of his competition so he'll have to earn his way with his glove. SLEEPER Craig Stansberry: Stansberry proved that he can hit in AAA last season (.273-14-75), but with many competitors, he’ll still need to have a very good spring to stand out. SDPADREFAN.COM’S PICK Crabbe and Gonzalez - With only five spots available on the bench, a player with Crabbe's versatility is invaluable. Gonzalez is not only the best hitter of the group but he also happens to be the brother of the Padres' star first baseman. He'll still need to have a good spring but he finally could get a chance after so many years in the minors. BENCH – OF (1 or 2 spots available) FAVORITE Jody Gerut: Gerut can play all three outfield spots, which would give him the edge over McAnulty. Jeff Davanon has much more CF experience but Gerut's offensive potential gives him a slight edge. COMPETITION Chip Ambres: After spending parts of eight seasons in the minors, he had one of his most in '07 with AAA New Orleans, where he batted .274 with 21 HR and 71 RBI. He'll likely play the outfield at Portland (his 10th minor league season) and serve as insurance for the aging Padres outfield. Callix Crabbe: SEE ABOVE Jeff Davanon: Davanon would give the team another switch-hitting option off the bench and has the most experience, by far, of any of the fourth outfielder candidates. Scott Hairston: If he’s beaten out by Gerut, Headley, or McAnulty, Hairston will still likely get his share of starts against left-handed pitching and late in games off the bench, where he did much of his damage in ‘07. Chase Headley: Headley is not likely going to make this team as a bench player when he can be getting at bat’s in Portland. It’s LF starter or AAA for their top prospect. Paul McAnulty: While P-MAC will never be a defensive replacement late in game, he also won’t embarrass himself in the outfield if given an occasional spot start. Out of options, he is down to his last crack with the Padres. If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training, he will either be traded or designated for assignment. SLEEPER Watch out for P-MAC. He has the ability to become a John VanderWal/Mark Sweeney type hitter off of the bench, which would make him a valuable pinch hitter late in games. If he’s not traded and Hairston or Headley are unable to establish themselves as clear everyday left fielders, McAnulty will have a legitimate chance to make the team and get some more AB’s this time around. SDPADREFAN.COM’S PICK Gerut – Yes, I’m jumping on the Jody Gerut bandwagon before a single spring training game based on my recollection of his rookie season. He had some serious potential offensively and he made the Baseball Tonight highlight reel quite a bit with some great catches. sdpadrefan.com’s roster prediction for Opening Day Starting Rotation: 1. Jake Peavy 2. Chris Young 3. Greg Maddux 4. Randy Wolf 5. Tim Stauffer Bullpen: 6 (Long Relief) Justin Hampson 7 (Middle Relief) Carlos Guevara 8 (Middle Relief) Cla Meredith 9 (Middle Relief) – Joe Thatcher 10 (Set-Up 7th Inn.) Kevin Cameron 11 (Set-Up 8th inn.) Heath Bell 12 (Closer) Trevor Hoffman Starting Lineup: RF Jody Gerut 2B Tadahito Iguchi 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff 1B Adrian Gonzalez CF Jim Edmonds SS Khalil Greene C Josh Bard LF Scott Hairston Bench: C Michael Barrett 1B Tony Clark IF Edgar Gonzalez OF Jeff Davanon UTL Callix Crabbe DISABLED LIST: OF Brian Giles RHP Mark Prior RHP Clay Hensley |